Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Clarifying

The markets got the election they were expecting as, this time, polling was fairly accurate.  Traders had already assumed the House would go to D control thus the sell-off that, in some cases, went all the way to bear territory.  Not to say that the entire correction was due to that solely but taken with other headwinds it was reason enough to take some profits built up since the election of two years ago.

Historically markets react positively to an election being over no matter the outcome.
Historically markets do well in the 3rd year of a President's time in office.
Historically markets like it when the two houses of Congress are controlled by opposing parties--- the House will propose and the Senate will dispose.

The rotation out of some market sectors into others that we have seen in this past week of trading has been predicated on the belief that this outcome would be reality today.  During the correction concrete stocks swam against the tide.  Why?  Because infrastructure bills are one of the few things that could actually make it to the President's desk in the next 2 years.

We are still waiting for a follow-through as Day 7 of the rally attempt opens.  Futures are up.
Will today be the day?

UPDATE:  At mid-day we have a follow-through working.  Both the NASDAQ and S&P500 are up over 1.25% on higher volume than yesterday.  Unless the market reverses in the afternoon we will follow-through on Day 7 and confirm the new uptrend.

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