Saturday, December 22, 2018

Zero

Cash is the safe harbor and Friday was an excellent example of why.  Early upward moves were more than erased by selling into the close.  Even our one remaining ETF play, RDIV, dropped.  Contrary indicators spiked, a scream that the near-term bottom was here, to no avail.

During it all the majority of our portfolio, in cash, lost zero.

An acquaintance who looks at his 401k and IRA holdings about once a quarter texted me Friday afternoon asking, essentially, "What the hell is going on? The economy's booming unemployment is the lowest since the 1960s, how can the market fall over 20%???"

I told him the federal reserve made clear on October 3rd and strongly reinforced on Wednesday this week that they would tighten the screws on non-existent inflation for as long as the winds blow and grass grows.  The results of that are what you see in your 401k etc.

"Why would they want to wreck everyone's life savings?"

I told him it's unlikely they want to do that, but a well-intentioned heart surgeon operating on your knee with a monkey wrench can cause a lot of collateral damage.

In the meantime, sit in cash and wait for the doctor to tell you he's done fixing your problem.  You know, one of these days the grass will stop growing and the big wind will blow no more.

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